> I have a suspicion it won't actually do better than a decent human driver can do.
I have the opposite opinion. I don't think self-driving cars are going to start on ALL roads, but on specific routes that are expanded as required. Eventually all routes will be covered, but it will take time. In truth, 90% (99%?) of my driving is on the same routes, so I don't think this is going to be a major issue.
In the end, I don't think this is going to be about what you, me, or even Tesla thinks. It will be about what insurance companies think. If self-driving cars turn out to be as good as they are promised to be, having a license for driving a car yourself will get more and more expensive. As more riskier drivers have less licenses, those insurance fees will ratchet up and ratchet up, until they are prohibitively expensive.
There's a model for this type of thing... Singapore. This is the type of place that I think will use self-driving cars first. When it starts to happen, I think the transition is going to be very quick.
I have the opposite opinion. I don't think self-driving cars are going to start on ALL roads, but on specific routes that are expanded as required. Eventually all routes will be covered, but it will take time. In truth, 90% (99%?) of my driving is on the same routes, so I don't think this is going to be a major issue.
In the end, I don't think this is going to be about what you, me, or even Tesla thinks. It will be about what insurance companies think. If self-driving cars turn out to be as good as they are promised to be, having a license for driving a car yourself will get more and more expensive. As more riskier drivers have less licenses, those insurance fees will ratchet up and ratchet up, until they are prohibitively expensive.
There's a model for this type of thing... Singapore. This is the type of place that I think will use self-driving cars first. When it starts to happen, I think the transition is going to be very quick.