As a dog owner in norway following this, my bet is on an extra bad seasonal outbreak + breaking the threshold of runaway media. Recent news article said there is a spike of dogs dying with these symptoms every spring and autumn. Even now, the majority of affected dogs just end up more or less sick for a couple of days. Not dead. I even suspect my own dog had it. It was bad enough that we would have called the vet if it was'nt the worst time of day and week for getting hold of one. (He's fine, tending his stick collection.) A "dog hotel" owner interviewed on tv said about half of the 17 dogs she took care of got sick, only two got it badly, none died.
If this was only a media fear fest the Norwegian Food Safety Authority wouldn't act as they have. They wouldn't recommend dog owners to avoid dog socialization if they didn't think this was a serious, real threat.
It's clearly a seasonal thing. The autumn weather activates Providencia Alcalifaciens somehow, but how isn't known yet. It's apparently a part of the normal gut flora, but the levels are very elevated in the dead dogs.
I don’t know how it is in Norway, but in the States sometimes these organizations like to “get out ahead” of something for fear of being blamed later.
In the US we have an average of 7 cases of EEE (Mosquito born illness) in humans per year, but if you get it it’s often fatal. This year there was an “outbreak” in MA of 7 cases. There are 36 communities which are claimed to be at “critical” risk.
The problem with this nonsense is that they close the town fields and they don’t let the kids outside before school starts or even for recess. This apparently will continue until the first hard frost hits.
It’s tragic that a few people have died. I think it’s insane to respond by effectively canceling fall outdoor sports.
Humans are just really bad at evaluating risks of extremely low probability events.
Norwegian culture is very different to US culture with this sort of thing at many levels. If a Norwegian public body declares an emergency it means there is a problem.
Some examples... There isn't really a blame culture here. People can fuck up massively and face no serious consequences. There isn't really the same aversion to risk. Sick people are told by their doctors to get some exercise and lose weight before the doctors reach for drugs. It would seem alien to an American in many ways.
I don't think it's _only_ a media fear fest. It's been scary, and still is. If dogs are dying from this seasonaly, and the media frenzy results in things beeing figured out - it's good. Early news coverage said similar incidents had occured in denmark and england.
Also. I certainly don't believe in the food theory. As a population, dogs are fed a variety of food. While individuals are often on a limited diet. Which suggest to me that it would be figured out quickly if it was a factor.
Based on links provided by other commenters, severe or fatal diarrhea, with vomiting. A canine bacterial dysentery provoked by a hostile strain of gut flora that harms dogs, previously detected in South Africa.
The bacteria's species does not have a wikipedia page yet, but here is the genus:
Meanwhile, a Google search for "Seasonal Canine Illness" produced mixed results, none of which says much about digestive problems, upset stomach or incontinence within the veterinary context.
It's mentioned that some dogs showed a presence of both microbes. Maybe it's a harmful interaction between two different bacterial loads, that evolves into a toxic conflict, as each organism tries to kill off the rival population and colonize the environment for themselves?
That the toxin is canine specific is interesting. The contagion incubates for maybe three days before the dog is incapacitated by digestive problems, so you get the sense that after crossing the fecal/oral disease vector (spoiled food, sniffing and licking biofilm surfaces, tracking in vomit/feces contaminated soil after walking dog paths mutually shared by infected animals or carriers) the foreign bacteria might react to quorum sensing once it's gained a foothold in the hospitable gut environment that meets it's needs as a microbe.
Some signal in the canine metabolism sends it into overdrive and it blows up causing tissue damage, and then the animal's body tries to evict everything by retching and dumping out both ends.
If it were so easy to find out, they would probably know already.
Unfortunately, not all the pathogens found in any or many of the cases will be causative. Some pathogens or newer strains thereof may be harder to detect.
To make matters worse, some of the dogs with the same symptoms won't even have the same disease.
Our dog also likely had this in late august. Started with vomiting, then diarrhea every hour or so for a week. Scariest period we have had as dogowners. Dogs were likely getting sick for a while before the media picked it up.
I guess virality of news like virality of disease is not good.
I guess it’s come full circle. At one point in time of early social media “virality” took on a positive aspect. I suspect it’s going to tend down, given how sensationalism is becoming a norm in news —at any cost, unfortunately.
