Absolutely. Just look at Pershing Square‘s Bill Ackman. He goes on CNBC essential calling for the end of the world, turns out he had credit protection on bonds and tuned a huge profit[1].
And a thousand other hedge fund managers talk about how bright the future is after investing in stocks. Maybe we shouldn’t rely on hedge fund managers for our opinion of the economy.
I believe them about as much as I believe the promoters of "Get Rich Through Real Estate" seminars. If their methods worked, they'd be getting much richer doing real estate than pushing seminars.
I recorded one once on TV, and carefully went through the spiel. It was fairly complex, and I was suspicious it was hiding something. Turns out, it relied on tricking the other party into accepting a bond with a maturation value of $10,000 instead of $10,000 now. The money was made on the difference.
> If their methods worked, they'd be getting much richer doing real estate than pushing seminars.
More generally, one should be suspicious of anyone whose business model is not "get rich doing X" but rather "get rich by selling the secret of how to get rich doing X".
Bill Ackman had already sold half his hedge and moved aggressively into stocks when he said that. He talks about it on Farnam Street if anyone is interested.
[1] https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bill-ackman-...