It might win in the sense that that would then also be a thing that exists, but would not necessarily mean that Mastodon can no longer be what it is now, I don't think?

Google talk had XMPP which is very similar to Fediverse, but then XMPP (mostly)died and Google talk survived

So is there anyone who was using XMPP before Google Talk supported it, and was no longer able to use it after Google removed support for XMPP?

I remember it the other way around, Google killed Talk and repeatedly replaced it with non-XMPP things while XMPP survived to this very day!

By Google talk I meant all its successor like hangouts and google chat. It's more like they moved its users to new service rather than killing it. Same with facebook messenger, which supported XMPP.

Sure yeah XMPP is surviving but it's nowhere close to Google chat or FB messenger.

It's kind of having a renaissance as more people discover the world outside of walled gardens. Platforms die eventually, internet standards are here to stay.