So yes, success depends on things outside of your control but if you fail because of that then it's still your fault.
Unless the forces are so strong that it doesn't matter what plan you have in place.
I lived through the 2000 crash (Genomics, but it was basically as crazy as the dotcom area) and survived. I wish I could say it was due to my better planning, but mostly it was luck. When the forces of finance really turn it washes away both the good and bad planners.
Yes, true. It's not an absolute. Sometimes it could be the case that something huge and entirely unexpected comes along. But that's quite rare - it's more likely to be the founders lack of strategic thinking than an unforeseeable catastrophic event.
But that's quite rare - it's more likely to be the founders lack of strategic thinking than an unforeseeable catastrophic event.
I am not sure how rare these are - I have lived (and survived) through two in the last 15 years. I guess the other factor is how long your runway needs to be - I come from the biotech side of tech where you need a runway longer than what a full loaded A380 needs.
I actually think more of a risk is how tightly the money flows are within tech. This really helps to drive growth when the investors are keen, but the same tight linkages are a killer if anything disruptive happens. A small shock can be quickly amplified to something pretty serious.
Of course I agree with you that the most likely cause of start up death is internal.
That's the key, isn't it? Of all startups, how many were born and died within that 15 year span, without being affected by either event? How many were created after, not being affected either?
I think you're talking about learning to run when the part that has people worried here is learning to walk.
Of course my perspective is affected by my experience and background. As I mentioned I am in from an area with really long runways which tends to make you more concerned about investor fashions and herd behaviour.
My main point is you should always have a plan for how to become profitable in a relatively short period of time if needed. Hopefully you won't need to put it into action, but the time you will save not having to try to figure this out at the last moment might be the difference between life and death of your start up.
Unless the forces are so strong that it doesn't matter what plan you have in place.
I lived through the 2000 crash (Genomics, but it was basically as crazy as the dotcom area) and survived. I wish I could say it was due to my better planning, but mostly it was luck. When the forces of finance really turn it washes away both the good and bad planners.